The Policy & Practice of Climate Change & Water

Uncertainty

New Episode of #ClimateReady Podcast | A High Probability of Uncertainty: How Do We Plan with Unknowns?

Nobody has data from the future - it hasn’t happened yet. But for centuries we’ve assumed that the past can predict the future. What if it can’t anymore? Will engineers and planners become consumed by inaction and climate uncertainty?

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) is a new five-step water resources planning framework that helps address deep uncertainties associated with climatic, demographic and land-use change. CRIDA tackles the hardest part of climate adaptation: those times we need a hard number as engineers and economists, especially in parts of the world where may not have access to much data.

In this episode of ClimateReady, we are joined by three of the lead authors behind the recently-released publication. Drs. Guillermo Mendoza, Ad Jeuken, and John Matthews each lend their perspectives on how an engineer, a climate scientist, and an ecologist (respectively) came together to create a new vision of resilience in water management planning and decision making.

The CRIDA publication and additional resources are available at agwaguide.org/CRIDA. The guidebook is a co-publication of UNESCO IHP and the Integrated Center for International Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM), a UNESCO center in the United States.
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CRIDA Publication Now Available | Open Access Guide to Water Resources Management in the Face of Uncertainty

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CRIDA book cover

Global Launch of New Water Resources Planning Framework for Addressing Climate Change and Other “Deep” Uncertainties

PARIS: 23/10/2018: 14:00 CEST

At this very moment immense changes are happening at all scales, from global to local. Climatic, economic, demographic, and land-use shifts are fundamentally altering the ways in which we interact with and manage the planet’s resources — freshwater being chief among them. The stressors on water resources management will continue to increase as population and urban areas grow, and they pose a real risk to economic, social, and environmental security in many parts of the world.

In practice, much of our management of water occurs through the medium of long-lived infrastructure. That infrastructure can easily endure for a century or more — even outlasting the financing and governance mechanisms that created it. Decisions made today about their design, allocation, governance, and operations may have impacts decades away.

For well over a decade, water managers, decision makers, investors, and scientists have been looking for better ways to address risks. The challenge has been to build upon existing decision making processes in order to work with, rather than against uncertainty.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis, or CRIDA, is a new “bottom-up” stepwise methodology designed for engineering-oriented water decision makers interested in incorporating resilience into planning and operational decisions with stakeholders. The CRIDA methodology begins with the early stages of project planning when stakeholders are engaged and vulnerabilities and future water demands are assessed. The goal is to mainstream robust and flexible approaches to water management by institutionalizing these methods into consistent, replicable, and accessible outcomes — especially in data-poor regions.
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Australian Rainfall and Runoff – The Interim Climate Change Guideline

This report provides a new approach to reduce key uncertainties for decision makers in Australia. The Interim Guideline for Climate Change for the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) draws on the most recent climate science and new climate change projections to better inform decision making regarding the region's infrastructure. The approach incorporates numerous factors related to infrastructure and climate change in order to make better plans for new assets and mitigate potential damage to existing ones. Read More...
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Cresting Research: June 2015 Selected AGWA Reading

Bridging the gap between climate science and engineering practice

How can we balance future needs for engineered infrastructure with the risks posed by the effects of climate change on long-term engineering projects? How do engineers plan for the likely effects of climate change while acknowledging the uncertain nature of when, where, and how they will manifest? The second installment of “Cresting Research” (AGWA’s research spotlight) will focus on the technical requirements and civil engineering challenges raised by adaptation to a changing climate.
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"The Economics of Climate and Water" Video Series

In May 2014 Kathleen Dominique of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was interviewed at length by the Secretariat Coordinator of AGWA, John Matthews. During this discussion, the two of them examined the role of economics in climate adaptation. Here are a couple of the installments. To view more of these brief videos in the series, click "Read More" below.


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