The Global Goal on Adaptation Needs Transformational Approaches

As we have written about in previous essays, 2023 was a big year for adaptation within the framework of the UNFCCC culminating with the adoption of a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) at COP28 in Dubai. This decision, known officially as the UAE Framework on Global Climate Resilience, will guide countries in their efforts to reduce adverse impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with climate change, review and monitor progress in achieving the GGA, and enhance adaptation action and support at all levels.
 
Unlike the Paris Agreement temperature goal (keeping global temperatures “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels), which guides mitigation efforts, there is no universal metric of progress on adaptation. This has made the creation of a measurable, credible GGA much more difficult. Despite these challenges, countries have been working in good faith to craft a goal that is sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse national circumstances while effective enough to improve the adaptive capacity of all nations, regardless of their development status.
 
The resulting framework is not perfect; there are multiple caveats and clauses which arguably weaken or undercut the goal. However, one area where progress has been made is on the need for transformational approaches to adaptation and resilience. Transformative adaptation is not a new concept, even within the UNFCCC, and it is not without controversy, especially among developing countries. However, the IPCC 6th Assessment Report Working Group II stressed the need for such approaches, and last year several IPCC authors presented on the topic in a GGA workshop, which I attended.
 
In this presentation they contrasted incremental vs transformational adaptation using three examples of water-related adaptation strategies that a country might consider. On the lowest, or most incremental, end of the spectrum they gave the example of early warning systems which address the symptom – floods and drought – but not the underlying vulnerability. As a middle option they listed investments in water infrastructure, which can be upgraded or replaced to improve community resilience. The most transformative option they presented was to build climate-resilient health care systems.
 
At first glance, it might seem strange to list health care systems as an approach to climate adaptation, but it is precisely these systems-level interventions that are most critical to addressing the systemic risks posed by climate change. COP28 was the first UN climate conference to formally recognize the importance of these interlinkages and the UAE Declaration on Climate & Health is a nice example of the evolving thinking about risk and vulnerability. However, systemic approaches are also the most difficult to implement, which is why countries often opt for more streamlined interventions like early warning systems. Transformative adaptation requires countries to move upstream and look at the system as an interconnected whole, where resilience is built through a matrix of interventions at sub-national, national, and regional levels.
 
It is precisely this type of systemic resilience-building that AGWA continues to advocate for – within the UNFCCC and beyond. At the upcoming Bonn Climate Change Conference we’ll be talking about transformative adaptation, and we are building an expanded body of work on resilience indicators that operate at the national scale. This work, like everything AGWA does, is a crowd-sourced effort so please get in touch if you’d like to learn more and get involved.

Ingrid Timboe
Portland, Oregon, USA