A note from AGWA's Senior Policy Advisor

At the COP28 Climate Conference, a bridge between 3 successive COP Presidencies was established with the goal of enhancing cooperation, learning and continuity of leadership from one COP to the next. This Presidencies Troika, with representatives from the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Brazil, was meant to usher in a new era of multilateral cooperation, something like Dorothy, the scarecrow and the tin man skipping down Oz’s yellow brick road, arm in arm.

Throughout 2024, the Troika has been actively providing high-level political leadership in the form of hosting political dialogues, exchanging with parties and the UN System, and interacting with key thematic and political platforms, such as G20, to ensure the greatest ambition possible for the NDC development process. The COP President-Designate has further built on this concept in a recent 10-page letter outlining his vision and values for COP30, suggesting that representatives from the past 10 COP Presidencies be united to channel collective wisdom, not only on UNFCCC issues, but also to increase coherence across other conventions and the sustainable development agenda as well.

But the skies have turned stormy in the Land of Oz. The global average temperature has now surpassed the 1.5°C threshold. The COP29 negotiations last year were often openly hostile and the final agreement was met with bitterness and fury from many developing countries, some of whom questioned the commitment of the Global North to the Paris process. Giving further ammunition to those concerns, the U.S. has once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, along with its funding. Only a handful of countries have submitted their revised NDCs by the agreed-upon deadline.

It is in this wobbly landscape that this Troika is now setting its sights on COP30, where the Paris Agreement will celebrate its 10th anniversary and where the UNFCCC cannot afford to fail on its vision of strengthened multilateralism and just transitions. At the end of February, the Troika issued a joint statement renewing their united determination to boost ambition and implementation for the NDCs. This leadership coalition is stepping up to occupy a leadership void in the climate space and prevent further deterioration of the Paris process. They are sounding the alarm bell loudly and strongly, while continuing to defend the transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable way.  They recognize the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions that are compatible with (and compound the impact of) sustainable development objectives.

Significantly, they are enlisting all stakeholders (and munchkins?) to take up arms in the fight against climate change, including forging pathways for adaptation and resilience, aligning climate with development, and making finance available at scale.
In prioritizing collective action before national interests and holding countries to their commitments, they are arguing that we will only overcome these challenges through radical solidarity.

This was again clearly emphasized by the President-Designate who called on all stakeholders to reactivate our collective and individual “response-abilities” against the common enemy of climate change. As he states, “If…we choose to organize ourselves in collective action, we have the possibility of rewriting a different future. Changing by choice gives us the chance for a future that is not dictated by climate tragedy, but rather by resilience and agency towards a vision we design ourselves."

The President-Designate used the word “multilateral” no less than 12 times in his recent letter.  Thus, there can be no mistaking the larger message of these communiqués: we are being pushed apart and must resist the temptation to retreat into isolation and grievance but instead redouble our efforts to protect international cooperation. COP30 will be a litmus test for the survival of international cooperation and multilateralism supporting climate resilient development for all, under the looming specter of a crumbling Emerald City.
 
Dani Gaillard-Picher
Hyères, France