Taking Stock of Climate Progress?

What story should we tell about our progress on climate?

Last Friday, the UNFCCC released the first assessment of the first generation of globally reported national climate plans — a “global stocktake” of the NDCs, abbreviated the GST.

Boring stuff first: the NDCs are five-year national commitments for adaptation and mitigation, defined very non-specifically under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The clock on this first generation of plans started ticking two years ago, so we’re more or less half way through this first generation.

The GST press conference and report generated a little press, but the number of people who know about NDCs much less the GST itself is pretty small. You could be forgiven if you didn’t see it in your newsfeed! And the few stories that came out were predictable: We need to do more. Many countries set low targets. Many of targets have been missed. The need is so great, these stories said, why are countries being so slow in implementing?

I want to tell a different story.

A few years ago, I sat on a plane next to a young woman who was an NDC focal point for her country in central America. She was almost the sole person responsible for defining these targets and setting up the national obligations. She was exceptionally well trained on climate policy, but no one really gets a degree on developing NDCs — those schools don’t exist!

I was so impressed with her and her sense of both hope and fearful responsibility for her work, but I was also worried about her. “Do your parents understand what your job is?” She laughed — “They have no idea what I do for work.”

In truth, I think my family might be a little puzzled about what I do all day too. But the NDCs are still really new. Certainly, they are insufficient. But we have direct evidence that countries are learning, and many countries are beginning to nationalize priorities across ministries and levels of government. They may be easy to criticize, but if the NDCs were a child, they would just be learning to walk. We must be patient with the wobbling walkers.

I’ve personally met the NDC focal points from more than 100 countries. The NDCs need steadying, generous, and patient hands, and they need institutions within and across countries to invest in and value the NDCs as tools. AGWA is working to help countries see both the water hazards and the water opportunities within the NDCs, to ensure their coherence, ambition, and efficacy. The NDCs need to work, and the water community should have the wisdom and commitment to make them work.

John Matthews

Corvallis, Oregon, USA

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