Managing Afghanistan’s Water Crisis for Economic Resilience
by Idrees Malyar (formerly Afghanistan National Environmental Protection Agency)
This case study is drawn from the larger report Managing Water for Economic Resilience: De-risking Is Not Enough, published April 2024.
Key Messages
Afghanistan, a country with high political instability, suffers a huge water shortage problem owing to ongoing conflict, poor institutional management, and climate change.
Climate change is worsening the already severe water scarcity issues in highly populated urban areas like Kabul, Kandahar, and Hirat.
Water resilience is crucial for Afghanistan's economic resilience, but the country's water sector still faces challenges such as financial limitations, lack of data, poor coordination, and security issues.
Over the last 20 years, the role of ODA financing in the water sector was remarkable, with Afghanistan receiving over US$ 4 billion in ODA to improve access to safe drinking water, increase irrigation capacity, and enhance water management and governance. However, according to the OECD, Afghanistan needs to invest more than 6% of its GDP to accommodate flood risks.
The investment gaps are significant, and the recent Taliban takeover has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in the country.
Reaching economic resilience via water resilience in Afghanistan (under the de facto authorities) is solely possible through the international community. This would require a coordinated and comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of water insecurity and economic fragility in the country.
Establishing the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund under the UN Special Trust Fund for Afghanistan (STFA), investing in the building and rehabilitation of water infrastructure, and improving public awareness to promote water conservation are recommended pathways until there is a possible handover to a legitimate government.
Introduction
This paper discusses Afghanistan’s water resources, changes in the sector before the Taliban takeover, and the pathways to economic resilience via water resilience in the current situation, where the de facto authority is leading the country without any international community recognition. The paper draws a map of recent advances in the water sector, current challenges, and the way forward by recommending the establishment of an Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund and creating the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Working Group.
Background
Years of political instability and conflict severely affected Afghanistan's economy, resulting in poverty and highly underdeveloped water resources. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Taliban takeover in August 2021 undermined the development gains of the past 20 years and exacerbated conditions further — inducing economic contraction and aggravating food insecurity. According to the World Bank (2022), the GDP has contracted by 20.7% in 2021.
The agriculture sector contributes 25% to Afghanistan’s GDP, employs 40% of its labor force, and consumes more than 90% of the water, yet cannot provide enough food for Afghanistan's population. Presently 20 million Afghans are acutely food insecure, and more than 6 million are in close to famine-like conditions. Even though 90% of household incomes are spent on food, Afghanistan is ranked the highest worldwide for insufficient food consumption rate. Nine of ten households consumed inadequate food, with no changes in the last 12 months (WFP, 2023).
Despite all the rehabilitation efforts and the engagement with the international community for two decades, Afghanistan still has a huge water shortage problem owing to ongoing conflict, mismanagement, poor institutional and human capacity, and climate change. The country has a minimal capacity for water storage of 140 m3 per capita per year — the lowest in the world. In 2010 the water production per capita in Kabul city was approximately 16 liters per person per day (World Bank, 2010) and has since been unfortunately declining; it is one of the lowest water production figures for any city in the world. For context, that same year water production per capita was 240 liters per person in Dehli, India and 500 for Los Angeles, USA.
Afghanistan, despite having significant water resources, is unable to utilize them effectively. The country's rivers, including the Amu Darya, Helmand, Harirud, and Kabul, offer potential for hydroelectric power generation, irrigation, and other uses. However, due to decades of war and conflict, the existing water infrastructure is severely damaged and inadequate. Moreover, many streams and rivers in Afghanistan flow into desert regions, where they evaporate without replenishing the major river networks. Other rivers and streams only flow seasonally, exacerbating water scarcity and limiting their potential use for agriculture and other purposes.
Groundwater resources are also under immense stress — demand often exceeds supply. In rural Afghanistan, groundwater is largely used for irrigation through Kareezes, mountain springs, and solar-powered wells. As of the end of 2021, three provinces had experienced a drying up of over half (53%) of their water points. (UNICEF, 2022). The water scarcity crisis has also had a severe impact on aquifers in the central region, causing reduced water levels and the drying up of various sources such as hand-dug wells, springs, kariz, boreholes, and streams.
Technological innovation in the form of solar-powered deep wells made it possible, especially in southwestern Afghanistan, to change hundreds of thousands of hectares of the desert area into agriculturally productive land, much of it cultivated with opium poppy (Mansfield, 2020). Water tables are also dropping rapidly in metropolitan areas due to over-abstraction for domestic use (USAID, 2021). Groundwater serves as the backup water source during times of surface water scarcity. The loss of these aquifers (or the fossil waters) will be irrecoverable for Afghanistan. All this is happening in a state where very little is known about these aquifers — including how they are recharged and when they might run dry.
Water-related Climate Risks
Climate change exacerbates water sector problems, such as glacial melt, drought, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing temperatures (Hanasz, 2011). Based on Afghanistan's National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA) report, temperatures in Afghanistan rose by 1.8 °C between 1950 and 2010, or twice the global average. Afghanistan is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world due to its geography, sensitivity to changing weather patterns, and low coping capacity to deal with climate change (Hakimi and Brown, 2022). In the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, Afghanistan was the sixth most affected country in 2019, with total losses of US$ 548.73 million (Eckstein et al., 2021).
The impact of climate change has caused a decrease in precipitation, which has further aggravated the already strained water resources due to population growth. This has resulted in a severe water scarcity situation in densely populated cities such as Kabul, Kandahar, and Hirat, where 66% of the country's urban population resides. Groundwater levels have been declining across Afghanistan, with Kabul witnessing a significant drop from eight meters below land in 2003 to 45 meters in 2021. Moreover, in the first eight months of 2021, over 29,000 people in 13 provinces were affected by natural calamities such as floods, which have added to the problems faced by the people.
The Hindu Kush Mountains in the country are natural storage facilities and sources of freshwater. They accumulate snow during winter and snowmelt and rainfall during spring. These are released as freshwater alongside frozen water from glaciers in the summer, which sustains the vital flow of rivers. This balance of the rivers' systems is being altered, and the people who benefit from these rivers face severe consequences. In Afghanistan, increasing temperatures cause more precipitation in the form of rain instead of snow, resulting in shrinking glaciers and more water when it is not needed. Unfortunately, in the past half-century, larger glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush Mountains have shrunk by over 30%, and small glaciers have disappeared completely (UNEP, 2008). These impacts will likely intensify in the coming decades, posing significant challenges to water availability and quality in Afghanistan.
Transboundary Issues
Iran considers the development of agriculture and dams in the upstream area of the Helmand Basin as a significant threat to the environment and water resources, leading to an increase in tension due to water scarcity and environmental degradation. The Helmand River, which contributes 70% of the total inflow to the Hamun Lakes and is crucial for farmers in Afghanistan and Iran, has seen reduced downstream flow, leading to the desiccation of the lakes (Akbari and Haghighi, 2022). The desiccation of the lakes has significant environmental and economic impacts on the surrounding population and ecosystem, including air pollution and concerns about water scarcity and environmental degradation. Given that the majority of available water in Afghanistan and Iran is consumed for irrigation, it is essential to address the decreasing inflow of water to the Hamun Lakes.
Water Management Prior to the Taliban, 2021
As one of the vital sectors for Afghanistan, water resources were given priority during the 20 years prior to the Taliban (only after the security organizations). The changes and enhancements in the water sector can be broadly categorized into two main areas: 1) strengthening good water governance and 2) infrastructure development.
Good water governance is essential to achieve water security and provide water services. In order to be able to respond to community needs and deliver services, the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) amended the Afghanistan Water Law of 2009, developed 35 legal documents (i.e., regulations), policies and strategies, and implemented institutional changes at the ministry as well as at the river basin level. The government and international community, via different platforms (e.g., training, workshops, and graduate scholarships abroad) trained a large number of water resources engineers and specialists who were able (to some extent) to fill the human capacity gap in managing water resources.
The previous administration's budgetary constraints and limited spending power were one of the major obstacles in dealing with water resources and climate change. Between 2013 and 2015, the government spent over US$ 100 million annually on climate change through its development budget; nevertheless, this amount was insufficient compared to the US$ 662 million needed per year (Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, 2015)
Related to infrastructure development, a large amount of focus and resources were given to building or rehabilitating large and medium-scale dams in Afghanistan (e.g., the Salma Dam, Kamal Khan Dam, Kajaki Dam Second Phase, Bakhshabad Dam, Dahla Dam, Shorabak Dam, Pashdan Dam, Shah-o-Aros Dam, Tori Dam, Shahtoot Dam, Machalgho Dam, Sultan Dam, and Palato Dam). Some of these dams were completed, and the remaining were under construction. Additionally, 47 more dams were surveyed, designed, and either contracted for construction or under the procurement process. In addition to these large and medium-scale dams, a program of around 4,500 check dams was also under implementation.
There were also irrigation projects of different scales, ranging from the Shahi Canal (serving 22,000 hectares of irrigable land) up to the Khoshtepa Canal in Northern Afghanistan (serving 500,000 hectares of irrigable land). Further, hundreds of main canals were engineered, and around 3,000 irrigation schemes were rehabilitated.
The previous administration worked with the international community to install 183 hydrometeorological and hydrogeological stations for data collection. Four early warning system pilot stations were set up to lessen the negative consequences of hydrometeorological risks on vulnerable communities.
Afghanistan's economic resilience is directly tied to water resilience. With all the advances, Afghanistan's water sector still needs more systematic efforts to utilize its water resources. Previous shortcomings were not only because of mismanagement and climate change; the water sector also struggled with financial limitations, data unavailability, and the involvement of many stakeholder ministries/agencies with very poor coordination. Above all, security was a massive problem for the water management projects. According to former Water Minister Mr. Takal, "Only in Machalgho Dam we had more than 130 security guards martyred, and hundreds wounded." This was done by the Taliban to obstruct government operations. More importantly, the security issue was from the neighboring countries because of the transboundary nature of Afghanistan's water.
Role of Official Development Assistance Financing in Water Infrastructure Development
The advances made in the last two decades were only possible with Official Development Assistance (ODA) for the water sector from various international organizations and donor countries. The water sector in Afghanistan is vital for its economic and social development, and ODA played an integral role in addressing water challenges. The key contributors that have provided ODA for the water sector in Afghanistan are the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), European Union, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and UN agencies, particularly United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
The assistance provided by these institutions was used for several purposes, such as the development of water infrastructure, rehabilitation of existing systems, and improving water governance and capacity building. These projects included the construction and rehabilitation of irrigation systems, on-farm water management, installation of water supply networks, rehabilitation of hydropower plants, and support for water resource management programs.
The ODA for the water sector in Afghanistan over the last 20 years has been notable; however, the water sector still needs a lot more. According to the World Bank, as of 2021, the total amount of funds allocated to the water sector in Afghanistan since 2002 was over US$ 4 billion. These funds have been used to support various programs aimed at improving access to safe drinking water, increasing irrigation capacity, and enhancing water management and governance in the country.
According to the OECD (2021), Afghanistan needs to invest nearly 3% of its GDP (around US$ 1 billion) in its water supply and sanitation infrastructure to achieve universal access to safely managed water supply and sanitation services. Not only are the investment gaps enormous compared to what is available in the country to invest in the water sector, but the Taliban takeover has led to a humanitarian crisis with millions of people in need of necessities such as food, water, and healthcare. In the meantime, to accommodate for flood risks, Afghanistan needs to invest more than 6% of its GDP in a business-as-usual scenario.
What is Next? Water Resilience towards Economic Resilience Mainstreamed by the International Community
Afghanistan's water resources are under enormous stress from the impacts of climate change, population growth, mismanagement of the sector in the last four decades because of continuous conflict and insecurity, financial limitations, insufficient technical capacity, data unavailability, and other drivers. Currently, Afghanistan is in a highly vulnerable situation confronting the second drought in four years — the worst of its kind in 27 years. The country has the highest number of people in emergency food insecurity worldwide (UNDP, 2022).
The following section will discuss the pathways to economic resilience via water resilience in the current situation of Afghanistan under the Taliban. Knowing that the international community has not yet recognized the de facto authorities in Afghanistan, working with them is not an option; therefore, this paper's recommendations rely on the current international organizations operating in Afghanistan, such as the UN agencies, World Bank, ADB, and some national and international NGOs.
Here are a few reassuring signs that could allow Afghanistan to take the first steps toward water resilience. First, the de facto authorities and the international community do not have political, religious, or cultural disagreements regarding addressing the current water and climate crisis. Secondly, international NGOs and United Nations offices are actively operating in the country. Examples include UNDP, UN-FAO, WFP, and others.
Reaching economic resilience via water resilience in Afghanistan (under the de facto authorities) is solely possible through the international community. This would require a coordinated and comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of water insecurity and economic fragility in the country. All partners should work together, including bilateral donors who are already providing humanitarian aid (such as the World Bank, ADB, USAID, DFID, etc.), multilateral donors such as the climate finance institutions (e.g., GEF, GCF, and AF), and partners physically present in Afghanistan like the United Nations Offices (especially UNDP who has a wealth of experience in water resources and climate change projects), national and international NGOs, and local communities (e.g., Community Development Councils). All the major players must step up and participate in addressing the current water and climate problems. This paper recommends that a few key organizations, especially those in Afghanistan, including UNDP, UN-FAO, and the World Bank, establish the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Working Group.
A good financial setup is of utmost importance in managing water resources and climate change. Thus, establishing the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund is one way to give proper attention to climate change and water resources projects. Establishing the Fund will centralize and ring-fence the finance within a dedicated setup, allowing for coherent investment and improving the confidence of bilateral and multilateral donors. Furthermore, it will avoid fragmentation and promote collaborative planning, coordination, and prioritization of water resources and climate change. It is worth mentioning that the former government approved the formation of a national environmental and climate change fund with NEPA being the leading agency working on its establishment. Back then, the idea was also to give the right platform for financing the climate change agenda through grants (i.e., bi- and multilateral donors such as the GCF, GEF, AF, WB, ADB, EU, and others) and private investments.
Because of the political limitations with the de facto authorities, the faster path could be establishing the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund as a separate wing under the Special Trust Fund for Afghanistan (STFA) by the United Nations. Established in 2021, the STFA is an inter-agency structure and UN-Multi-Partner trust fund to assist UN joint programming in providing basic human needs in Afghanistan. In its mandate, STFA has already been investing in climate change projects under the "Protecting Farm-Based Livelihood from Natural Disaster" pillar of the ABADEI Project; however, as stated before, in order to give the proper focus and attention to the water and climate crisis in Afghanistan, a separate, dedicated financial setup is necessary.
To first get Afghanistan out of this emergency and then reach economic resilience in the medium and long term(s), enhancing water resilience is a crucial factor. Here are some possible actions that could be pursued to enhance economic resilience via water resilience under the de facto authorities:
Create the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Working Group, comprising key partners such as the UNDP, UN-FAO, World Bank, and others currently operating in Afghanistan. Moreover, establish the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund under the UN Special Trust Fund for Afghanistan (STFA). This will centralize and ring-fence the finance within a dedicated setup, giving proper focus and attention to the country's water and climate change emergency and optimistically resulting in attracting funds from bilateral as well as multilateral donors.
With the current situation in mind, provide humanitarian assistance. Currently, in Afghanistan humanitarian assistance is critical for meeting the basic needs of vulnerable populations, such as food, water, and health. The international community could provide humanitarian assistance to address the immediate water and economic needs of Afghan communities, particularly those affected by conflict, displacement, and natural disasters like recent floods and droughts.
Promote local ownership and participation. Water resilience and economic resilience are best achieved when local communities and stakeholders are engaged and empowered to co-create and co-implement solutions that address their specific needs and priorities. The international partners could prioritize community-led water management and governance approaches, such as participatory water management committees, and support their capacity-building and resource mobilization efforts. Furthermore, the working group could invest in institutional development and enhancing human resources capacity, as most water experts/specialists have been fired by the de facto authorities or left the country because of insecurities.
Through the setups mentioned above (i.e., the Working Group and the Fund), partners should invest in the building and rehabilitation of water infrastructure, such as check dams, irrigation systems, and wells, to increase water availability for domestic, agriculture, and industrial use. This will also reduce the impact of climate change, improve access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities, increase agriculture productivity, and improve food security. Afghanistan's water infrastructure needs rehabilitation and expansion to meet the growing water demand and enhance water security. Rehabilitated irrigation systems have proven to help farmers by avoiding water shortages and allowing them to switch from low-earning to high-earning crops and generate higher revenues.
Improve public awareness and promote water conservation and efficiency to avoid over-exploitation of water resources, particularly groundwater. Water conservation and efficiency measures can help to reduce water demand and increase productivity, particularly in water-stressed areas. Long-term investments can be made in water-saving technologies like drip and sprinkler irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and water reuse to improve water use efficiency and reduce the stress on water resources.
Once a legitimate government is in place, hand over the Afghanistan Water and Climate Emergency Fund and the Emergency Working Group to the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF).
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