Sustaining the Inner Niger Delta Lifeline

by Chris Baker, Peter de Koning, and Mori Diallo (Wetlands International)

This case study is drawn from the larger report Managing Water for Economic Resilience: De-risking Is Not Enough, published April 2024.

Key Messages

Natural wetland systems in the Sahel provide significant economic value for millions, but this is typically not factored into sectoral water management investment decisions.

Water resource management solutions of the past for food and energy security may not provide the desired security for the future.
Decision-making around infrastructure investments to drive economic development need to be informed by a more holistic understanding of the economic pros and cons.
With the unpredictable effects of climate change, ensuring livelihood and food security is not about (water) control but about flexibility to adapt: water resilience supports economic resilience.
Solutions for the future need to be people- and ecosystem-based and need to be flexible, contextual solutions rather than fixated on time and place.

Introduction and Background

Wetlands provide significant economic value locally, nationally, and sometimes regionally. The Upper Niger Basin (UNB) and Inner Niger Delta are one large iconic, wetland system that extends across the Sahel delivering natural resource-based services to millions of people. Their health is dependent on the hydrology of the water systems that they are connected to, which typically drive seasonal flooding that in turn supports traditional and increasingly intensifying use of these services. Rice production, fisheries, and livestock raising are all typical uses that form the foundation of the wider economy in these areas. Growing population pressure, a strong need to drive socio-economic development based on increased water use, and growing impacts from climate change are driving growing water insecurity which is placing these systems at risk. Despite their importance, decision-making around water resource management remains rather sectoral and often takes insufficient account of the wider social and economic impacts.

Mali and Guinea are among the world’s poorest countries, with persistent water, food, and energy insecurity. As in the wider Sahel belt of Africa, population growth is outpacing food production. Demand for food and energy is rising. To support their people and economy (GDP) Guinea and Mali want to increase their energy and food production and future security. Guinea and Mali are planning a new dam project on the Niger River in Guinea, and large-scale expansion of irrigation by the Office du Niger (ON) in Mali. Construction of the dam was announced in 2017, but since then little further action has been taken. At the time the case study was completed in 2020, the preferred dam size was 396 m high above sea level with a storage volume of 2.8 km2 and a reservoir surface area of 287 km2 (the medium option (Wetlands International, 2020)). The location was Folon, 30 km upstream from Fomi. This Fomi Dam is intended to take advantage of hydropower potential and to store and divert water for agricultural irrigation, providing a secure supply of water throughout the wet and dry seasons. An Environmental Impact Assessment has not been published yet and it is not clear if or how this plan will proceed.

This case summarizes the results of a study conducted by a Malian and international partnership including Wetlands International and others in close participative consultation with Malian government ministries and agencies. The study assessed the potential impacts of this infrastructure development according to the dimensions outlined above. It illustrates that economic resilience is also about water resilience in the Inner Niger Delta. The case shows the social and economic risks of designing and operating traditional, sectoral infrastructure in a context of water insecurity and a changing climate. It points to the need to make more strategic environmental assessments of such investments that take a holistic approach and embed the results in the wider economic sphere.

Climate Change

The landlocked countries Mali and Guinea already have significant variability in annual rainfall and experience regular droughts. For Mali, the annual mean temperature is 28 oC with a maximum of 51 oC and a minimum of 10 oC (MFA, 2018). Already the mean average temperature in Mali has increased by 0.7 oC and is expected to rise even further with differences per region and season. The frequency of hot days has not risen significantly (yet), but the frequency of hot nights did, except for during the winter. Rainfall has been decreasing since 2001 and the mean precipitation is changing. Mali has been getting less rain, ranging from 200 mm in the North (expanding to the South) to 1200 mm in the South (from averages previously above 1200 mm). The mean annual rainfall is projected to change further from -22 to +25% by the 2090s. However, with the current emission levels, we will reach 2 oC before 2050 (Climate Adapt, 2015). This means water availability becomes more unpredictable with large variations in time and place.

The Niger River Basin

The Niger River Basin covers a total area of more than two million km2 and runs through nine countries. It is the main river artery of West Africa, flowing from the highlands of Guinea to its most northern point in Mali and back south to its delta outlet in Nigeria. It is the principal freshwater source in this semi-arid to arid Sahel region, making it crucial for the provisioning of a wide range of ecosystem goods and services along its route to many different beneficiaries. Even with some dams already in operation, the basin is still characterized by high natural variability, with extended periods of wet and dry years. Climate change and increasing temperatures are adding uncertainty to the amount of water that will be available in the future.

The Inner Niger Delta’s (IND) functionality is integrally linked to the river flow arriving from the upstream river basin. It is characterized as a flood pulse driven system. The seasonal expansion and contraction of lakes and wetlands in the IND depends on the river inflow at the entrance of the delta: Ké-Macina for the Niger River and Sofara for the Bani River. The Niger River receives most of its runoff from rainfall in its headwaters in Guinea, located more than 600 km upstream. The Bani River contributes approximately 21% of the total inflow into the delta and is fed by precipitation in southern Mali and Cote d’Ivoire. Local precipitation in the IND is relatively low and contributes only a limited amount to the annual flooding cycle, meaning that the flood extent of the IND is largely dependent on precipitation in the upstream areas. In the wet season, from June to November, the IND transforms from an arid environment into a vast wetland landscape with few dry places at the height of the floods, before de-flooding again over several months.

Economic Contributions

In 2021, agriculture contributed around 33% to Mali’s Gross Domestic Product and employed nearly 80% of Malians (many as subsistence farmers). The IND is a major economic asset in the Malian and regional economy. It is estimated to contribute approximately 8% of Mali’s GDP (based upon estimates of its value to agriculture, livestock raising, fisheries, transport, and associated processing described below). In a country with low levels of education and scarce opportunities for non-agricultural employment (20%), millions of people and animals currently depend on the goods and services produced by the seasonal floodplain wetlands of the IND. Two million people (10% of the national population) live there permanently, and many others seasonally migrate there from dryland areas.

While covering only 1.6% of Mali’s land area, the IND provides about 15% of national cereal production (Ministère du Développement Rural, 2016) 30% of rice production, 80% of fish production, as well as dry season grazing for up to 60% of Mali’s cattle. Its unique location and ecosystem make it possible for farmers to grow crops farther north than anywhere else in the West African Sahel. Pastoralists and cattle from some neighboring countries move into the IND in the dry season, while fish from the IND are exported across West Africa. Primary and secondary production in the delta depends on the flooding (timing, extent), which has a significant impact on sustaining fisheries, agriculture, livestock, and housing. The flooding is rainfall, climate, and water management related.

Agriculture

For more than 90% of the farmers, agricultural production is important for subsistence. Farming in the delta is highly dependent on the combined effects of the rainy season and flooding periods. Cropping types, distribution, and yields are greatly defined by the date on which rainfall and flooding starts, the duration of the flooding period, the maximum water level, and the speed at which de-flooding occurs (Thom and Wells, 1987). Agriculture in the delta is mostly focused on rice and millet production. While rice is highly dependent on flooding and irrigation, millet and other important cereals such as fonio, maize, and sorghum are more dependent on rainwater availability.

Various irrigation techniques are used for rice production (30% of the national production) including: 1) rain-fed, 2) flood recession, where crops are planted on the moist floodplains after the flood recedes, 3) water levels being controlled in simple polders along the river, and 4) small-scale pump irrigation schemes (Pearce, 2017).

Traditional floodplain rice production (yields) can vary greatly between years as it strongly depends on water availability as well as inundation zones and water depths (with an optimal depth 1–2 m). Rice production in the Mopti region can easily decline from about 400,000 tonnes in a wet year like 2010–2011 to about 100,000 tonnes in a dry year like 2007–2008. Compared to natural floodplain rice production, crop yields can be doubled when water is slightly managed, as with flood-controlled irrigation. In comparison, when land is fully irrigated the yield may be boosted up to six times. Normally, such a yield improvement requires higher agricultural inputs (e.g. fertilizer, labor, mechanization) and hence may also happen in the IND with the right sort of investment. However, at the same time it must be said that the water productivity (defined as the amount of yield produced per unit of consumed water) of irrigated land is under debate, with huge irrigation losses due to canal seepage and non-beneficial evaporation.

Fisheries

About a third of the population in the IND catches fish for either subsistence purposes or to sell on the market: 4% depend exclusively on fisheries, while more than 30% have a diverse livelihood with a combination of fishing, pastoralism, and/or agriculture. For fisheries, the Mopti region is most important (Schep et al., 2019). The delta produces 80% of Mali’s fish and fish are exported across West Africa. Total fish trade in the IND is estimated to be between 10,000 and 50,000 tonnes and is also related to the flooding of the IND (Zwarts et al., 2005). The total value of fisheries (traded and auto-consumption) in the entire delta is valued at between 50 and 95 billion West African CFA Franc (FCFA) per year (Schep et al., 2019).

Livestock

The IND supports millions of cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and camels. It is highly productive for livestock, not only because of its size, but also because of its flood dynamics, grazing across the delta during the flood recession, through a practice known as “transhumance.” Twenty percent of the 20 million goats and sheep and 60% of the five million cows in Mali are concentrated in and depend on the IND and its surroundings during the dry period (Wetlands International, 2019). The current economic value of livestock raising — including meat and milk production, animal sales, and leather — calculated for the regions of Mopti, Tombouctou, and Ségou, represents an annual total of about 250 million FCFA.

Socio-Economic Relevance

Housing, energy, and medicinal herbs

The vast majority of the local population collects clay to build and maintain their houses (94%). About 85% of delta inhabitants collect firewood to meet their own energy needs. Collection of herbs and tree-related products — natural products used in traditional medicine — is carried out by almost half of the respondents. Availability has decreased over the past five years (69% in the case of trees, and 87% for herbs).

Transport and navigation

Transport by boat is important for both commercial, social, and leisure purposes in the delta (e.g., access to local markets and medical, financial, and agricultural service providers). Passengers and freight are primarily transported by two different types of boat: the ferry and the pinasse (a traditional wooden boat). Ferries only operate during the wet season as they require a minimum of 3–4 m of water depth for navigation. The pinasses run through into the dry season until the water level becomes too low even for these smaller boats, which require around a meter of water. Based on the day rates and the average number of navigable days per route, the total annual value for fluvial transportation can be estimated at around 2.1 billion FCFA for the Koulikoro-Mopti route and 1.6 billion FCFA for the Mopti-Gao route.

Relevance for Biodiversity

The IND is one of the major wetlands in Africa, and the floodplain ecosystem sustains people and nature. The delta has exceptional ecological value and is a globally important biodiversity hotspot; it is designated as a Wetland of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention. Seasonal flood patterns are crucial in maintaining the biodiversity of the area (Klop et al., 2019). For instance, the area is of paramount importance to both resident and migratory bird species (Zwarts et al., 2006). At least 27 species of migratory water birds are seasonally present in very high numbers. The numbers of colonial breeding water birds in the central lakes are amongst the highest for wetlands in Africa. The IND’s Acacia kirkii flood forests and the Acacia seyal forests at the fringes of the delta are home to high densities of migratory land birds, hosting many European species from the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The survival of wintering birds and reproduction of resident birds is directly related to the flood pulse dynamics of the IND, as expressed by the extent of the flooded area and the depth of the water. In turn, healthy ecosystems are central to the provision of the services that support community livelihoods and the delta’s economy.

Office du Niger (ON)

The ON is a semi-autonomous government agency that administers one of the largest and oldest (since 1932) irrigation schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Water from the Niger River is diverted into a system of canals upstream of the IND at the Markala Dam, 35 km downstream of Segou and used to irrigate nearly 100,000 hectares. The production targets for 2017–2018 were set at one million tons of paddy rice, 350,000 tonnes of vegetables, 30,000 tonnes of corn, 47,000 tonnes of potatoes and 5,000 tonnes of fresh fish from floating cages, ponds, and rice-fish culture (if producers are provided with the needed certified seeds and quality organic and mineral fertilizers). ON is considered the rice bowl of West-Africa. Even so, the country still relies on imports of rice and wheat to avoid food insecurity (on average 540,000 tonnes per year). The livelihood situation of farmers in ON is not clear (no recent figures) but poverty seems less in ON compared to the national level. However, the average farm size is approximately 3.7 hectares with a low level of production due to a lack of fertilizer and poor water management. The bulk of the marketable surplus seems to come from a small number of farms with large irrigated areas. There also seem to be tensions between farmers and ON administration regarding (collective) water management and water user fees.

The Ambition

While Guinea has long desired to build the Fomi reservoir for electricity to support both its growing population and the energy needs of its mining industry, its most recent proposed design makes it multifunctional. A key secondary goal is to guarantee water for downstream irrigation expansion. Water released from the Fomi reservoir for hydropower generation during the dry season and then diverted at the Markala barrage would enable the ON to irrigate more land, supporting improved food security.

Fomi is therefore a key priority for the governments of Mali and Guinea and included as a priority investment in the Sustainable Development Action Plan of the Niger Basin Authority (NBA, 2007). In Mali the construction of Fomi is supported by the Ministry of Agriculture as a prerequisite to extend the irrigated area of the ON. To meet increasing demand for food, the Malian government proposed an expansion of the ON in the Study of the Agricultural Development Programme of the Office Zone du Niger, 2014–16 (PAHA IV). The goal of the ON is for it to become the rice granary for West Africa. Its current production of 740,000 tonnes across an irrigated area of about 1,300 km2 generates 52% of national rice production. In total, the PAHA outlines the ambition to expand by an additional 3,300 km2 over the coming 20+ years; 2,000 km2 by 2025, 3,100 km2 by 2035, and almost 4,600 km2 by 2045. This ambition corresponds to an annual extension rate of 90 km2. By comparison, over the last 10 years expansion has averaged 40 km2 per year. Adding 3,300 km2 will result in a significant increase in potential cereal production, projected at two million tonnes, including 1.2 million tonnes of rice — an increase of 58%. The total annual irrigated area will be even more as some areas will be cropped more than once a year. Based on these ambitions, the total irrigated area in 2045 will be about 5,400 km2. The area earmarked for expansion is currently sparsely populated with livelihoods related to the flooding dynamics of the delta. With the expansion of the ON, these people will be displaced to other areas, but it seems unlikely that they will benefit from employment in the new development.

This ambition needs to be looked at through the lens of water availability. Over the period 1961–2000, only 67% of the current irrigation water demand of the ON would have been met, leaving a gap of 33%. Looking at the dry and wet seasons separately reveals that the deficits in the dry season are up to 43% and therefore on average quite substantial, whereas wet season irrigation supply deficits amount to only about 3%. Technically, the available water in the Niger River would allow the ON’s expansion plans to be realized during the wet season. However, the plans also propose an intensification of crops such as off-season rice and perennial sugarcane in the dry season. A further extension of the ON’s area in the dry season is not possible under current conditions and can only be achieved by either increasing irrigation efficiency or by supplying more water from the Niger River. Supplying more water by diverting the Niger River at Markala is not possible without the construction of a large new dam like Fomi for water storage upstream.

Impact of the Fomi Dam and ON Expansion on Production

Additional water infrastructure as currently planned in the Niger Basin will store and divert large volumes of water and hence have impacts on river discharges into the IND. The hydropower dam changes the flow regime by increasing discharges during the dry season and decreasing discharges during the wet season. In effect, it slowly flattens the flood curve and reduces the pulse that drives the delta’s ecosystem and economy. The extent to which the flow regime is altered depends on the reservoir’s dimensions and operations.

Operating Fomi purely for hydropower generation would increase the dry season discharge into the delta. Compared to natural flow conditions these would go up between 12% (small dam) and 156% (large dam). However, when this extra water released during the dry season from Fomi is diverted to expand dry season irrigation as planned by ON, the low flows entering the delta at Ké-Macina will be reduced below the level of natural flows. Taken together with the existing Sélingué Dam, this study showed that diverting water to meet the projected irrigation demands of the ON would reduce low flows by 58% in 2025, 91% in 2035, and 98% in 2045. In the case of a large Fomi Dam, the low flow would change from a 156% increase under 2015 irrigation conditions to a 78% reduction under 2045 irrigation projections compared to natural conditions. This reduction in low flows increases the risk from stagnant water bodies in the IND and could dry up the delta significantly.

History shows that a complete dry up of the IND would lead to a collapse of the ecosystem and food production. Projections also show that the assumption of double cropping in the ON would not be sustainable with available water frequently being insufficient. These changed inundation dynamics will determine the total amount of ecosystem services that can be provided in the delta. The median flood peak would be reduced to a level comparable to 1987 — the year with the second-lowest peak simulated in the period 1961–2000. This resulted in an inundation of 350 cm and flood extent of 10,000 km2. In the IND, it would compromise the productivity of the ecosystem for the population. Fisheries in the Mopti region would decrease by 24%. The amount of cattle, sheep, and goats that could be sustained in the region would decrease between 5% and 13%. For the more than two million people living in the IND, this would mean diminished economic prospects and increased food and water insecurity. The number of navigable days with ferries and pinasses in the delta would on average go down by 17% between Mopti and Koulikoro and even up to 33% between Mopti and Gao. A smaller delta also provides less habitat for flora and fauna. Secondly, with livelihoods providing less food security, people resort more to wildlife hunting, leading to huge stress on local populations of birds and mammals and on areas like flooded forest for construction, energy materials, and traditional medicines.

Based on recent hydrological model simulations it is evident that if the Fomi Dam project is built and ON irrigation is expanded as planned, the inundation dynamics in the delta will see a shift towards a higher number of drier years compared to the current situation. The frequency of very dry years is estimated to increase from 24% to 29%. Irrigation expansion will have an even larger impact. If more water is diverted for irrigation by the ON, the frequency of very dry years could increase to 42% — almost one out of every two years.

The probability of disaster years will also increase substantially. In the current situation, these occur once every 50 years. In the scenario with an operational Fomi Dam and expanded ON irrigation, the frequency increases by a factor of five — to once every 10 years. In a worst-case scenario, the combination of a Fomi Dam, expanded irrigation, and a very dry year would reduce peak flows below levels ever seen and completely dry up the IND, leading to a complete collapse of the ecosystem and affecting the two million people whose livelihoods are based upon this ecosystem. It is highly unlikely that households in the IND could move to this new irrigated area in ON and profit from the development. This would be a humanitarian disaster with famine and widespread migration.

Impacts of Fomi Dam on Migration and Conflict

There are three livelihood strategies for people in the IND: intensification, diversification, and migration. The local and regional context determines whether (seasonal) migration is negative or positive for the economy, but it does put stress on families and livelihoods.

Life in the IND has always been a delicate balance including adjusting to the natural variation of the region’s climate and its implications for water security. When changes to the IND’s service provision affect the livelihoods and local economy, people will be forced to consider alternatives including migration and/or increased competition for natural resources. The sustainability of livelihoods for fishers, farmers, and pastoralists in the IND depends greatly on whether they have access to and control over various types of assets like the water, fish, soil, and fodder provided by the wetlands, along with other assets like technologies, information, and financial resources. Farmers also need access to fertilizer (either in the IND or in ON). Access to assets strongly influences which strategy people choose to either maintain or boost their livelihood. For each of these three livelihood strategies, migration increases for every decrease in water level in the delta. A considerable share of farmers and fishers would abandon their occupation and permanently migrate to a different region, country, or continent if they considered the water level to be too low. In a situation with maximum water levels at Akka above 500 cm (a constantly a wet year), less than 10% of interviewed farmers said that migration would be a likely strategy to sustain their livelihood. With decreasing water levels, more and more farmers consider migration a viable sustainable livelihood strategy, going up to 20–40% in cases of maximum water levels of 350 cm (a very dry year).

Pastoralists are less influenced by the water level. At the lowest level of 350 cm, 16% of pastoralists expressed a willingness to permanently out-migrate, while more than 40% of the fishers of Tenenkoun and Ké-Macina agreed that permanent outmigration was the most viable strategy under these conditions. In scenarios that result in a higher occurrence of dry, very dry, and even disaster years, consideration of permanent outmigration as a preferred sustainable livelihood strategy increases. In a scenario with a large Fomi Dam and ON irrigation at 2045 projections, 21% of farmers, 24% of fishers, and 10% of pastoralists would be willing to out-migrate.

Tensions and conflicts arise when communities seek to use the same water and land for different livelihood seasonal strategies (e.g., farming, herding, fishing). This leads to widespread discontent and provides fertile ground for extremist groups to exploit. The water stress caused by the effects of climate change, overexploitation, and upstream management decisions results in behavioral change amongst communities in the delta as they seek new coping strategies, which in turn trigger more tensions and conflicts, and is detrimental to production and the economy.

Lessons from the Past for Climate Adaptation

The Upper Niger Basin has historically experienced large annual and decadal variation in rainfall and resulting fluctuations in river discharge. The 1960s are considered wet years characterized by high precipitation and river discharge. From 1969–1992, the Sahel suffered the Great Drought (known locally as La Grande Sécheresse). During this prolonged drought, the flooded area of the IND averaged only 11,000 km2. People and nature could not adapt. The drought triggered severe famine in the Sahel and increased desertification. In 1984, the IND only reached an inundation of 8,000 km2, or one-third of its maximum range. While the IND was a relative haven during the drought compared to the rest of the Sahel, the carrying capacity of the ecosystem and its services collapsed under the pressure of too many people and livestock and too few resources. Most of the delta’s flood forests suffered overexploitation and some were entirely destroyed. Also, the production of bourgou, a staple fodder for livestock that grows with floodwater, was disturbed when there was little or no rainfall to initiate its growth ahead of flooding. Many cows died and herders lost more than half their cattle due to reduced food resources and the reduction of the inundated area.

Climate change is likely to result in increased temperatures for the region along with unpredictable changes in precipitation. Simultaneously, the population is growing. A new drought period would affect a larger population with more destructive consequences.

Synthesis: Water Resilience for Economic Resilience

The Inner Niger Delta and wetland systems like this across the Sahel have significant social and economic value from local to national scales. A key characteristic of the IND is its seasonal dynamics that underpins the economy. The annual cycle of flooding and de-flooding is integral to the IND’s regional economy, which is based on farming, fishing, and pastoralism and supports significant biodiversity and a diversity of livelihood strategies (including seasonal migration). Increasing food and energy production and security in the Sahel is essential to address the needs of the growing population. Because water plays such an important role in sustaining livelihoods, new water infrastructure should also be “conflict-sensitive” (Wetlands International, 2019). While irrigation can provide water security for agriculture and will continue to be a major part of the mix of measures to safeguard food security, the times are changing. Solutions that worked in the past will likely not work in the future due to climate change and its disruptive impact on people, ecosystems, and water infrastructure operations. Climate change will increase local temperatures, the variability of rainfall, and the magnitude of extreme weather events (e.g., droughts and floods).

The current strategy in the IND, predominantly focused on the realization of large-scale irrigation and hydropower, will bring undoubted benefits but also carries substantial risks and associated costs. Foreseeable consequences range from diminished livelihoods and biodiversity loss to an increase in instability, heightened risk of conflict, and increased outmigration from the region. Safeguarding and optimizing the role of the IND needs to be central in future thinking around planning and investment. Furthermore, this demands measures to ensure that water-related investment, strategy, and policy work to maintain such critical natural systems as part of development solutions rather than risking depleting them and creating risks and problems. Currently in Mali there is some limited consultation on such initiatives, but they are predominantly sectoral driven, and environmental impact assessments — when they are carried out — do not expose the full range of issues and implications to the economy and society as a whole.

People living in the IND have traditionally used a combination of intensification, diversification, and (seasonal) migration. The existing culture of diversity in livelihood strategies is also the basis for an adaptative, flexible coping mechanism to build on. A holistic, ecosystem-based and human-rights based approach to integral water management of the IND plus improving ON’s irrigation efficiency and using less water-intensive crops may underpin Mali’s development and food security ambition and provide a lifeline to the people in the IND.

References

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NBA. 2007. Elaboration of an Action Plan for the Sustainable Development of the Niger Basin, Phase 2: Master plan for the development and management. Niamey: Niger Basin Authority.

Pearce, F. 2017. “How big water projects helped trigger Africa’s migrant crisis.” Yale Environment 360. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-africas-big-water-projects-helped-trigger-the-migrant-crisis

Schep, S.W., E. Palacios, T.R. Polaszek, M. Diallo, B. Zongo, and P.J.H. Van Beukering. 2019. Ecosystem services in the Inner Niger Delta under different water resources management scenarios. Wolfs Company.

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AGWAMarch 22, 2023Comment